Early this week already brings Asian currencies under pressure once again, both the NZD / USD and AUD / USD have broken their support levels for short term trades. This happened due to the sell-offs and tumbling commodity prices, with ore and iron being Australians main exports seeing a fall of 4% on Friday bringing this to an all-time 6-year low. Another commodity that could not escape the downfall was the ASX 200 and fell to 1.2% when Australia had opened trading this morning.
Industrial production in Japan has also received inadequate data that production has fallen to a disappointing 3.4% in February which misses a more positive market forecasted of 1.9% decline, which was well over the expected. The only cause would be the seizing of production and closing of the factories during the Japanese lunar New Year. However, their, extreme decrease is more worrying as production on ground level is a major concern. Even though the Yen is seen as weaker the export market is still doing well, though, the worry is over the domestic demand for goods within the country. Retails sales were extremely disappointing closing last week’s financial news for the country, the inflation and consumption data did not impress and does not look any good for the future of the Japanese economy. Early this morning the Yen (JPY) softened on the back of figures that were released earlier today, however, this will not make much of an impact in terms of the policy. However, the combination of the soft economic data may very well lend a helping hand and protect the USD / JPY pair even if it is in the short term. Support levels could be around 118.95 / 119.02.
Looking back at the AUD / JPY this may just be a good pair to watch for the coming week, regarding the recent news that surrounds Australia, on the medium term the pair could see an upward trend this week. Despite further weakness with the JPY, it could see the support of 89.00 / 90.00.
What I am mostly waiting for are the results of the USD with regards to Janet Yellen’s speech that was held on Friday in San Francisco. Her speech comes straight after a rather volatile week with oil rallying above $5.00 and the EUR / USD above 1.10 the slaying back down on Thursday. Even though the Fed removed the word ‘patient’ from their intentions to increase rates, they were not exactly impatient with regards to increasing them with immediate effect either. With the FOMC meeting last week the EUR / USD had moved over 400 pips and now I am eager to see if the speech will have a similar effect or the total opposite.
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